The week in rates, lenders and lending policy — translated into plain English for home owners, buyers and investors — wherever you are in Australia.
EDITION 02 · WEEK ENDING SUNDAY 6 SEPTEMBER 2026
The numbers that matter
Your one-glance snapshot as at Monday 7 September 2026.
RBA cash rate
4.35%
Held 11 Aug · next call Tue 29 Sep, 2:30pm
Annual inflation
3.5% ▼
July CPI (26 Aug) · core stuck at 3.6%
Sharpest variable
~5.69%
Best of market, advertised
Big four from
~5.99%
Westpac's advertised low
This week in 60 seconds
Four things that happened, and why they touch your mortgage.
The rate hike is back on the table. After July's inflation figures, three of the big four banks flipped their forecasts to another increase — NAB says it could come as soon as the 29 September meeting. Yet the futures market is pricing a 0% chance of any move. Someone is wrong, and 29 September settles it.
July's inflation drop wasn't as friendly as it looked. Headline inflation eased from 3.8% to 3.5%, but mostly because last year's electricity and travel rebates dropped out of the annual maths. Underlying inflation hasn't fallen in eight straight monthly reads — it's parked at 3.6%, well above the RBA's 2–3% target.
Lenders are still fighting over new customers. 52 lenders now advertise at least one variable rate under 6%, and 35 have cut new-customer rates since June. The catch: the big banks mostly haven't budged on paper — which means your best move is to ask (or be ready to walk).
Cashback clocks are ticking. Refinance bonuses of up to around $4,000 still exist, but several $2,000–$2,500 offers expire on 30 September — the day after the RBA call. A bonus is a nice extra, never the reason to switch.
What it means for you
Where you sit decides what this week's news means for your hip pocket.
🏦 On a variable rate
The average owner-occupier variable rate is about 6.25%, against a market low of ~5.69%. On a $500k loan, that gap is roughly $180 a month.
And if the RBA does add 25bp on 29 September, that's about $82 a month more per $500k borrowed — worth setting your buffer now.
⏳ Fixed rate expiring
The question has flipped from "am I missing the cuts?" to "what if rates rise again?" Lenders are still sharpening fixed specials, so the market hasn't given up on good deals.
Know your expiry date and your revert rate — then compare both, 90 days out. Never let the revert letter decide for you.
🔄 Thinking of refinancing
All this competition is for new customers — so become one, or ask your bank to price you like one. As Canstar's Sally Tindall puts it: "ring your big bank and you might find otherwise."
Canstar estimates a five-year-old untouched loan sits near 6.97%. Moving $600k from 6.97% to 5.99% saves about $10,592 over two years, even after ~$1,150 in switching costs.
Smart moves this week
Four things you can do before the next RBA meeting on 29 September.
Find your current interest rate — it's on your loan statement or app. Compare it to the ~5.69–5.99% best-of-market range above.
If you're fixed, write down your expiry date and revert rate. Circle the date 90 days out.
Ring your lender and ask for a better deal — 52 lenders are under 6% for new customers, so ask to be priced like one.
Diary Tuesday 29 September, 2:30pm — the cash rate call. If it is a hike, ~$82 a month per $500k borrowed; check your buffer tonight so it's a shrug, not a shock.
Where rates could head next
The big four's economic teams have split — here's each call, and when it changed.
NAB
Hike — September 2026
The most hawkish call: a 25bp rise on 29 September to 4.60%, with another possible in November.
CommBank Economics
Hike — November 2026
Flipped on 27 August. Sees a 25bp rise to 4.60%, with a September move a "live but secondary risk".
ANZ
Hike — November 2026
First to flip — within hours of the 26 August CPI. Also sees 4.60% by summer.
Westpac Economics
Hold through 2026
The lone holdout, pointing to softer jobs and wages data. Cuts pencilled for August and December 2027 (to 3.85%).
Translation: three of the four big banks now say the next move is up; the futures market says no move at all. Nobody credible is promising a cut in 2026. Plan around the rate you're paying today — that's the only one you can change.
Wondering what your rate should be?
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